Why Obama Can’t Lose??

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The history of Presidential elections for the last forty four years suggests that John McCain’s candidacy in 2008 is doomed.  Why?  Well for a very simple reason.  Since the advent of television debates and the proliferation of visual politics the most physically attractive candidate has always won.

Who could forget the Kennedy win of 1960 where the handsome Senator was perceived as superior to Richard Nixon with his five o’clock shadow?  1964 was interesting with two candidates who were equally plain physically, although Barry Goldwater looked more unkempt.  But Johnson prevailed as he had the advantage of incumbency over his opponent.

Richard Nixon was able to make a comeback in 1968 because although less attractive than Kennedy he was more so, only just, than Hubert Humphery or George Wallace.  Things would probably have been different if Robert F Kennedy had not been assassinated.  Nixon repeated the win against George McGovern and his unappealing comb over in 1972.

Gerald Ford in 1976 was the victim of plainness against the youth and toothy grin of Jimmy Carter who was himself undone by the debonair old actor Ronald Reagan in 1980.  Reagan repeated his success in 1984 when he demolished Walter Mondale who had all the charisma and the charm of a trade union leader.

Why you may ask did the patrician George H Bush manage to beat the elfin Michael Dukakis but couldn’t beat Bill Clinton?  Who doesn’t remember the image of Dukakis in the tank?  It was laughable and Bush cruised to victory.  Clinton, despite his biggish nose and his pizza fuelled waistline at the time was warmer in personality and was also much younger than Bush.  Subsequent history has proven his apparent attractiveness, particularly to members of the opposite sex.  Of course Clinton went on to demolish the doleful Bob Dole in 1996.

The year 2000 again proved good for the attractive candidate.  George W Bush, with his youth and toned physical presence narrowly defeated Al Gore who, while quite handsome in his younger years, had developed an unhealthy, puffy look by the end of his Vice Presidency.  In 2004, Bush went on to defeat John Kerry, widely acknowledged as smarter and a true war hero.  Against Bush’s own poor military record and the failing Iraqi war Kerry should have been a shoo in.  But Kerry, with his long long face, is wooden, a cardboard cutout figure.  Who can forget his salute and ‘reporting for duty’ at his convention which made him seem more like the eager beaver leader of the local boy scouts than leader of the free world?

And so on to 2008.  History suggests John McCain has an uphill battle against his younger, more attractive rival Barak Obama.  Who will prevail?  Will McCain with his comb over, his puffy, aged complexion and war injuries or the clean cut Obama with the disadvantages of his mixed race background.  All the evidence of the past forty four years points to a clear Obama victory.

Patrick Lawrence

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