“Things Are Getting Interesting”: Presidential Race Nears a Virtual Tie

August 17, 2008

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The 2008 Presidential contest between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain is officially, or as officially as a non scientific study can be, sitting amidst a virtual horse tie. Poll after poll shows this phenomena to be true, and one has to wonder why, with everything stacked in his favor, is Barack Obama unable to put any distance between him and his republican counterpart John McCain. We are going to look at the latest polls - both on a state by state basis, as well as a national perspective.

Here we have collected a handful of data, all of which has been released within the last 3-5 days. That said, I think it would be hard for one to deny the fact that this thing is all tied up, regardless of which candidate he or she may support:

Public Policy Polling - OHIO (8/12-14/08; 950 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 3.2%)

(R) John McCain: 45% (July: 40%)
(D) Barack Obama: 45% (July: 48%)

Rasmussen - MAINE (8/12/08; 500 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 4.5%)

(R) John McCain: 39% (41%)
(D) Barack Obama: 53% (49%)

Rasmussen - COLORADO (8/13/08; 700 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 4.5%)

(R) John McCain: 49% (45%)
(D) Barack Obama: 48% (47%)

Insider Advantage - VIRGINIA (8/12/08; 416 Registered Voters, Margin of Error 5%)

(R) John McCain: 43% (42%)
(D) Barack Obama: 43% (47%)

Rasmussen Tracking - NATIONAL (8/14-8/16; 3000 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 4%)

(R) John McCain: 45%
(D) Barack Obama: 47%

What do all these polls have in common? Unfortunately for Obama, they are all polls that either he led in by a much larger margin this time last week, or they are polls that he led in by smaller margins, however is now - in a literal sense - tied.