The Latest & Greatest “Presidential Poll Roundup”: Plus a Glimpse at the 50 State Electoral

July 10, 2008

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Keeping with our word to have the latest state by state Presidential polls updated as soon as they are made available, we have gone ahead and put together the latest installment of our polling roundup. Today we will look at the numbers coming out of Missouri, North Dakota, New Jersey, as well as taking a look at Zogby’s brand new “50 State-Map” which tracks the electoral college makeup as of the latest polls nation wide.

Rasmussen - New Jersey (7/7/2008, 500 Likely Voters. Margin of Error +/-4.5%)

(D) Barack Obama: 44%
(R) John McCain: 39%

Public Policy Polling (PPP) - Missouri (7/2-5/08, 723 Likely Voters. Margin of Error +/-3.6%)

(D) Barack Obama: 44%
(R) John McCain: 47%

Rasmussen - North Dakota (7/10/2008, 500 Likely Voters. Margin of Error +/- 4.5%)

(D) Barack Obama: 44%
(R) John McCain: 47%

While these numbers are nothing that should make your “jaw drop”, it should be noted that in North Dakota is a state that hasn’t voted Democratic since 1964, and from the looks of it, is definitely in play in terms of the upcoming Presidential election.

With that said let’s move on and take a look at Zogby’s “50 State-Map” which analyzes each of the 50 individual states, and their latest polls, and then formulates the electoral college accordingly - thus producing who would win if the election was held today.

Zogby - “50 State-Map” (6/11-30/08, Nationwide Likely Voters)

(D) Barack Obama: 273 Electoral Votes
(R) John McCain: 160 Electoral Votes
Too close to call (Purple): 105 Electoral Votes

Here is Zogby’s explanation of their nationwide, electoral map findings:

“Welcome to the Zogby International 2008 presidential electoral college map. This map reflects our polling state-by-state and will give you one of the most accurate measurements of how the race for the White House is stacking up. All you have to do is click on a state (for smaller states, please click on the abbreviations), and the latest Zogby polling (or trustworthy consensus polling data from elsewhere) will appear in the box to the right, along with our snappy analysis. Everything you need to know about the race - up to date - and nothing you don’t need to know. Remember to check back to see how the race is changing with every new survey we conduct.”

I really suggest you visit the site, they have an interactive map which allows you to click on any of the states and they see the latest polls being released from whatever area it is you are interested in.

I also want to point out something I found quite interesting, and that is going by the Zogby results above, with McCain sitting at 160 electoral votes, with only 105 electoral votes “too close to call”, even if he were to pick up every single one of those 105, that would only put him at 265 total - 5 electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win the presidency.