Obama forging ahead to Victory

November 4, 2008

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Barack Obama is on the cusp of making history today by becoming the 44th president of the United States of America and its first African-American leader with early poll results showing Obama winning the crucial battleground state of Ohio.

He was ahead in the crucial battleground state of Florida and was competitive in other key states won in 2004 by the Republican Party.

The Ohio loss is a heavy blow for McCain - no candidate has won the White House without taking Ohio since 1960.

No Republican has ever won the presidency without it.

The ABC network in America and CNN said Senator McCain had lost Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, his only path to compensate for the losses of other other big states, such as Florida.

Early numbers in battleground states showed a strong swing to the Democratic candidate.

Early results in Florida showed Senator Obama leading Republican candidate John McCain by 53 to 47 per cent, and being competitive in Indiana and North Carolina, two Republican strongholds. Two southern states, Alabama and Mississippi, both Republican safe territory in 2004, were classified as battlegrounds.

In Florida, Senator Obama was winning in the swing area of the I-4 corridor between Tampa and Orlando, which George Bush won in 2004 and many of the southern areas, which are strong for the Democrats.

In Virginia, which Senator Obama wants to win, Senator McCain was hanging on. But Northern Virginia, which is now part of the Washington suburbs and was expected to be stronger for Senator Obama was yet to report.

CBS, CNN and NBC all projected an Obama victory in New York, which is the third biggest electoral vote prize in the election after California and Texas.

New York has voted Democratic by big margins in presidential elections since 1988 and Obama went into today’s polling with an almost 30-point edge over McCain, according to the non-partisan RealClearPolitics.com polling average.

Democratic Senator John Kerry beat President George W Bush in New York with 59 per cent of the vote.

So extensive were the shifts that it would take a miracle in the Midwest for Senator McCain to catch up. But every poll leading up to today has shown that Senator Obama was doing very well in the Midwest. Ohio, also a Republican state in 2004, was also leaning Obama, 67 per cent to 32 per cent, but these were early numbers.

This state carries special symbolism because Ohio has voted for the president in every post-war election, with the exception of John F. Kennedy.

Early on election night in the US, Obama adviser David Axelrod said it was looking good but said having waited two years, the Obama camp would wait a few more hours to claim victory. “Nothing is giving me heartburn at the moment and that feels strange,” he said.

The shift to Senator Obama was most in evidence in the once-Republican stronghold of Indiana, a state that President George Bush held by 18 percentage points in 2004.

Early poll results showed the race close 51 to 48 per cent in Senator McCain’s favour, but the industrial areas around Gary in the north and Indianapolis, the capital, had yet to report.

Early exit polls suggested that 62 per cent of Americans voted on who would be best for the economy, an issue that favours Senator Obama.

The exit polls also showed that 70 per cent of first-time voters favoured Senator Obama, an indication that his voter registration efforts had paid off.

Early numbers on the popular vote showed Senator Obama leading with 51 to 48 per cent.

To win, a candidate must win 270 electoral votes tied to the candidate who wins each state. Senator Obama went into the race with 227 solid Democratic votes, and there appeared to be multiple paths to reach the required number.

If he wins Florida and Ohio it would be impossible for Senator McCain catch up, given that smaller states and other Midwest states were trending strongly for Senator Obama.

Senator Obama was not expected to claim victory until after Senator McCain concedes. He will appear in Grant Park behind a bullet-proof glass screen.

Senator Obama spent the day with a campaign stop in Indiana, and then played basketball with some friends, a tradition he adopted during the primary.

Senator McCain spent the day on the campaign trail, rustling up last minute votes in Colorado.

Democrats took a third seat from Republicans in the Senate, putting them on track to win a majority with 52 seats in the 100-member legislative body, major US news networks said.

Virginia’s Mark Warner filled a seat being vacated by veteran Republican Senator John Warner, no relation, CNN and Fox said. Democrat Jeanne Shaheen unseated Republican John Sununu in New Hampshire, NBC and CBS said.

In addition, Democrat Kay Hagan was projected to win North Carolina’s seat from Republican Elizabeth Dole, Fox and CBS said.

Prior to today’s vote, Democrats held a narrow majority in the Senate with 49 seats and the support of two independents.