New Quinnipiac Shows Obama Leading McCain 49-41 Nationally

July 15, 2008

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A brand new Quinnipiac Poll (literally. It was released a couple minutes ago) shows Barack Obama holding a 50% - 41% lead over his Republican counterpart John McCain. This according to a nationwide poll of likely voters which was comprised over a three day span, July 10th through 13th. The internals of this poll however are almost, if not altogether, more intriguing then the actual surface number, which has Obama up by 9 points.

From July 8 -13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,725 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4% points.Here is a collection of some of the more intriguing “internal questions” included in the Quinnipiac Poll. These includes which candidate the “likely voters” polled agree with on issues ranging from Iraq, immigration, the economy, as well as voters feeling on race, age, and President George W. Bush:

Independent voters split 44% - 44%, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. Sen. McCain has a slight 47% - 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49% - 42% lead among white voters.

Black voters back Sen. Obama 94% - 1%, while women support him 55% - 36%. Obama leads 63% - 31% among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48% - 44% among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45% for McCain and 44% for Obama.

The Democrat gets 44% to the Republican’s 47% in red states, which went Republican by more than 5% in 2004, and leads 50% - 39% in purple or swing states.

By a 55% - 29% margin, likely voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 50% - 31% favorability.

A total of 88% of American voters say they are “entirely comfortable” or “somewhat comfortable” having a black President, but 9% are “somewhat uncomfortable” or “entirely uncomfortable.” And 86% say Obama’s race won’t affect their vote.

The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 53% of American voters say, followed by 16% who list the war in Iraq and 11% who list health care.

Obama leads McCain 53% - 39% among those who list the economy, 65% - 27% among those who cite the war and 67% - 27% among those worried about health care.

So let’s quickly run down the scorecard here. In terms of the economy, the single most important issue on voters minds, Barack Obama wins handily. The same can be said in terms of Obama leading by a wide margin amongst voters who see the current war or the health care crisis as the numero uno issue at the forefront of this Presidential election.

It was also staggering, and in all reality needs to be taken with a grain of salt given the circumstances (being asked in person, opposed to the privacy of the voting booth), but 88% of respondents at least claim they don’t have a problem with a “black president”. If that number holds to be true, which I really doubt to be sincere in the first place, it would be quite telling about how far we have come since even the 1960’s as country in terms of race relations, and overall perception of each other in a racial context.

Then there is a total of 64% of voters say they are “entirely comfortable” or “somewhat comfortable” with a President who is 72 years old, while 34% are “somewhat uncomfortable” or “entirely uncomfortable.” Because of his age, 20% say they are less likely to vote for McCain, while 75% say it won’t make a difference.

Even with all of this I am a firm believer in the “Mike Murphy school of political theory”, which has the Republican strategist arguing that all these national wide polls (not so much on a state by state basis) isn’t worth the paper they’re printed on and won’t until after the candidates respective conventions in August as well as the first wave of national debates.