Is Colorado the New Ohio? How the Rocky Mountain Swing State Could Decide the Election

July 14, 2008

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There has been a lot of talk regarding the electoral map “swing states” as of late. A particular focus has been put on Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and Missouri all states where the current polls are close, but reflect similar numbers at this time back in 2000 and 2004. That is why electoral experts have begun to believe that Colorado will ultimately decide the 2008 election - and this is not an assertion that should be taken lightly either. Those arguing that Colorado is very likely in deciding the ‘08 election have quite a compelling argument on their side - one that makes more and more sense as each day passes, and state polls are released.

The current electoral college outlook actually favors Barack Obama. He is ahead in states that Democrats over the past decade couldn’t have won if they had Jesus himself as a running mate. I am talking about states like Virginia (Obama +5 points), Arkansas (Obama +4), Arizona (Obama is +3 over McCain, in McCain’s home state), North Carolina (Obama +9), South Carolina (Obama +1) and Georgia (a virtual tie).

However we are going to disregard all that for argumentative purposes. Instead we will lay it out in really simple terms - a scenario which will more or less illustrate why Colorado is so likely to have a major hand, if not the deciding factor, in the upcoming 2008 Presidential election:

“If Democrats hold all the states they won four years ago and flip just Colorado, Obama will be the next president.”

It doesn’t get any clearer then that. If in November John McCain wins all the states George W. Bush did in ‘04 with the exception of Colorado, Barack Obama would manage to hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed to declare victory.

With that out there to chew on, let’s now look at an array of different polls that have come out of Colorado within the last couple of weeks:

Public Policy Polling (PPP) - COLORADO (7/9-10/2008, 1,050 Likely Voters)

(D) Barack Obama: 47%
(R) John McCain: 43%

Zogby - COLORADO (6/11-30/2008, 780 Likely Voters)

(D) Barack Obama: 40%
(R) John McCain: 38%
(L) Bob Barr: 8%

Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal - COLORADO (6/17-24/2008, 1,351 Likely Voters)

(D) Barack Obama: 49%
(R) John McCain: 44%

If you go back a little further you would see that Obama actually held a larger lead, however McCain managed to trim it down by a couple points - but has seemingly plateaued at around 3-6 points behind Obama. Another huge factor favoring the Democrats is that their National Convention, where Obama will accept the nomination is set to take place in Denver next month:

“Now, with polls showing Sen. Barack Obama several points ahead of Sen. John McCain in the new swing state, the choice is looking very smart. The local coverage of Obama will be wall-to-wall in the last week of August and could help Democrats pull off a crucial win.”

Clearly one would have to agree, simply by looking at the numbers, and the scenario in play, that Colorado appears to be (this does not mean guaranteed) Barack Obama territory, at least up until this point in the contest.

Another interesting statistic, one which should be taken with a grain of salt for a plethora of reasons, is Colorado’s Presidential primary results.

On the Democrat side, Barack Obama won the Colorado primary with 67% (79,344 votes) of the total vote, while Hillary Clinton garnished 32% (38,587 total votes), putting her in a distant second place. Over on the GOP primary race you will notice that not only did McCain finish a distant second receiving only 19% of the conservative vote (10,621 votes) behind the winner Mitt Romney, who ended up walking away with 59% (33,288 votes), but when you add up all three candidates total vote count (yes Huckabee was still around & finished third) you will see that it works out to approximately 51,000 votes - Combined.

Barack Obama alone received close to 30,000 more votes then the entire Republican field put together. And when you include Hillary Clinton’s total votes you see that the Democratic candidates (the two of them) received nearly 70,000 more votes then the GOP cast of characters did.

Again this is nothing to base an argument around, or even anything that should be taken for more then an “interesting” fact. However it does say something about the states idealology, and what group is more active, energized, and mobile - that clearly being the Democrats.

One more thing we should point out before this we wrap this thing up, and that is Colorado’s important issues, in the eyes of their voters that is.

The biggest issue on the minds of Colorado voters has got to be immigrations. I say this because 5.4% of the states total population is comprised of illegal immigrants. On this issue one would be led to believe that Obama would have the upper hand, seeing as though McCain has so dramatically flip flopped on this issue, it would be hard to see how anyone, left or right of the political spectrum, could believe a word he says when talking about borders, work permits, and anything else to do with immigration in this country.

Anyways, thats about it. I think it’s obvious that Colorado will be crucial in deciding the 2008 Presidential election, and I suspect that it will be a necessity for whichever candidate ends up winning. As to how crucial it will be is still up in the air, but you have to think that with the convention in Denver, and the current poll numbers showing Obama in the lead, and holding it pretty steadily, Democrats have got to be confident in turning the historically “red” state, a nice shade of “blue” this coming November.