Electoral Map Prediction Given the Latest State by State Polling

July 1, 2008

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Here is the latest “Electoral Map” outlook regarding the Presidential election. This was determined by the current Pollster.com numbers, which draw there numbers by averaging all the polls for each of the individual states - making it more or less, the most conclusive polling tool available. As you can see, the current electoral map preview, come to by averaging each states cumulative polls, has Barack Obama winning 289 to McCain’s 249 (270 needed for election).

A lot has changed in the past three weeks, which was when the last “electoral map preview” was released. Since then Virginia (Obama leading 47%-45%) and New Hampshire (Obama leading 50%-39%) have gone from “red states” to “blue states”. While Indiana has been moved from “blue” to “red”.

According to the electoral outlook, McCain is still projected to win in both Michigan and Florida, which I find somewhat interesting seeing as though Obama is currently leading McCain (in just about every poll released over the last three weeks) by a cumulative margin of 47%-41%. And in the case of Florida, another projected win for McCain according to the map above, Obama only trails by the slightest margin 45%-44% - the same margin Obama is leading McCain by in Indiana, however Indiana was shifted to “red”.

Puzzling I guess, but in a way this is a good way of approaching the contest, it leaves a whole lot less room for disappointment, and an endless amount of room for surprise and excitement.

Then there are the infamous “swing states”, which both Michigan and Florida are members of. Attached on the left you will see the “electoral map preview” with “swing states” clearly defined as is. Here is a description of what’s going on in some of the “yellow states” regarding polling trends, and other critical factors that shape a states overall electoral outlook:

“I have removed Nebraska from contention. One or two of its EVs are in play (the state, like Maine, apportions one EV per congressional district), but for these purposes, until polling shows cleaner splits per CD, I’ll stick with the statewide numbers. New Hampshire changed from a lean McCain battleground state, to a safe Obama state. Massachusetts was previously yellow thanks to some inexplicably close polling, but post-primary, that’s pretty much history. Obama now leads the Bay State comfortably. West Virginia is now yellow thanks to a single recent Rasmussen poll. Finally, Georgia has now edged in, just barely, into single digits. Now that Obama is flooding the state with staff and ads, maybe it’ll even stay yellow!”

It’s also important to point out that there are another set of historically red states, which are likely to side with McCain come November, but none the less are worth keeping an eye on just in case.

For example, in states such as Kansas (McCain leading 48%-39%), Louisiana (McCain leading 50%-41%), Alaska (McCain leads 45%-41%), and Arizona (McCain’s home state where he only leads 49%-40%) you can visually see the poll trend lines steadily improving for Obama, and well - tapering down for McCain. Remember, these states are all places McCain should win with his eyes closed, they are as “red” as a state could possibly be. However, as you can see for yourself, he has reason to sweat if nothing else.

What does all this mean? Well, this is the first time in god knows how long that in all reality over half the nation is theoretically in play, which really is astonishing seeing as though back in the 2004 election it was pretty much known that Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and Missouri would ultimately decide who would win.