With his first month as President in the bag, Barack Obama is receiving an unparalleled level of support from the American public in regards to his ability to handle, and in this case fix, the shattered economy. In fact President Obama has the largest lead over opposition party in overall trust to handle the economy as any U.S. President has had in over 20 years.

Even sky high approval ratings, President Barack Obama still has some undeniable challenges in front of him in regards to the post-partisanship government he spoke of so often throughout his long and hard fought presidential campaign. Nonetheless Obama clearly holds the upper hand, both in overall approval and on the dominant issue of the day. He leads the Republicans in Congress by 61-26 percent in trust to handle the economy, the biggest such lead for a president in ABC News/Washington Post polls since 1991.

Obama’s overall approval ratings are definitely strong, in both the literal and historical sense, currently hovering at 68 percent of Americans approving of the job he has done so far. However when you look closely at the polls internal findings you will find that the partisanship is as glaring as ever with 90 percent of Democrats approving of Obama’s performance thus far, and only 37 percent of Republicans happy with the newly elected President. This sharp party line divide among American’s is nearly identical to the numbers that accompanied George W. Bush in his first term which was hot off the heels of the controversial 2000 election and its subsequent outcome.

As mentioned above, the partisanship divide is as clear cut as ever before, but with that said it also becomes important to point out that many American’s are giving the President credit for his attempts at bringing the two sides together. More or less, a healthy majority of American’s recognize that while it may not be working yet, Barack Obama is undoubtedly attempting to forge a healthy middle ground between the Democrats and Republicans:

While President Barack Obama cannot be happy with the ultra-partisanship we are currently seeing, regardless if he is being recognized for trying to bring the two political factions together, it begs the question; how bad is this split for Republicans? According to the same ABC News/Washington Post poll — the hyper partisanship appears to be a bigger downfall for the Republicans, whose party remains on life support after what the majority of Americans fee was a disastrous Bush presidency. Below are the numbers – and it won’t take long until you see that if anyone is hurting from the inability to work together, it is the elected officials of the right:

• The Democratic Party leads the Republicans by 56-30 percent in trust to handle the country’s main problems. That has slightly improved from 56-23 percent in December, as congressional Republicans found a unified voice in opposition to the stimulus. But the December number was the Republicans’ worst in ABC/Post polls since 1982; they still have far to climb.
• Fifty percent of Americans approve of the way the Democrats in Congress are doing their jobs, while 44 percent disapprove – if hardly a barn-burner, still the Democrats’ best in two years, since April 2007, just after they regained control of Congress. And their Republican counterparts are a good deal weaker: 38 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove. (Democratic gains have come mainly in two groups: among Democrats themselves, and among liberals. Seventy-seven percent of Democrats now approve of their own party; just 55 percent of Republicans feel the same about theirs.)
• The Democrats are holding the edge in partisan affiliation they’ve built since 2004, when the public soured on the Iraq war and the Bush presidency in turn. Thirty-six percent in this poll identify themselves as Democrats, just 24 percent as Republicans. On average in 2003, by contrast, the parties were at parity, 31 percent apiece.

I have also attached a graph that pretty much reinforces the bumbers cited above — You will see just how much the public’s trust level in terms of the economy has dropped off for Republicans starting back in 2005 and plummeting at a fairly steady rate ever since:

Some constants have remained throughout this first month. For instance,young people still support Barack Obama at an unprecedented rate. Among young adults, or as they are being referred to nowadays, “Millennials” (those between the age of 18 and 30) his overall approval rating peaks at a startling 84 percent, compared with 59 percent in his weakest age group, seniors (this was a trend we saw throughout the primaries and general election as well.) There are income gaps here as well; among people with incomes less than $50,000, 66 percent approve of Obama’s handling of the economy; among those in $100,000+ households, this drops to half. Two possible reasons: Better-off Americans are more apt to be Republicans. And they’re in Obama’s cross hairs on taxes — and their awareness of it.

If you are interested in seeing the entire ABC/Washington Post poll regarding Obama’s first month in office you can do so by clicking here. It is really quite interesting and unfortunately, familiar to what we have seen throughout the past couple of years. The main difference  is that now it’s Republican’s who are in the doghouse, and many would say it’s rightfully so.

Technorati Tags: barack obama, Breaking news, Breaking political news, Breaking Politics News, Democrats, george w. bush, GOP, latest Polls, Latest Presidential Polls, Obama

I know I am behind the fray on this one, and there is a good chance you have seen the Harold Ford/ Markos Moulitsas debate, which captures the contrast between the “DLC vs. the Netroots”. The setting “Meet the Press” which was hosted by MSNBC’s David Gregory (at the time Tim Russert was still the shows regular host) – and certainly served as both an entertaining and substantive political joust. I am attempting to set the mood for round 2 of the “Kos vs. Ford” debate which is scheduled to take place in Austin, Texas on July 17th, as part of the “Netroots Nation” convention.

These two have been battling via their own individual platforms (blogs, editorial pages, talk shows, lectures) for some time now, however it really began to heat up when Markos became in some peoples opinion (including myself) overly critical of strategy being implemented by the DLC.

That said it should be noted that an overwhelming majority of Democrats, both “centrist” and those leaning further to the left, have for the most part the up most respect for both of these personalities – and while you may agree with one more then the other, which is perfectly fine, these two represent the Democratic base as a whole making this discourse both important, and informative regarding the current and future direction of the Democratic platform.

• Part 1: Kos vs. Ford

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqNVRLznnl0

• Part 2: Kos vs. Ford

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7E_Tc8XI3A

• Part 3: Kos vs. Ford

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7eg4nvQ1L4

Kinda lengthy I know, but interesting nonetheless. It’s vital that the dialog channels remain open between these two factions, because when the rational discourse and debate stops, political parties go up in flames. Look at the GOP right now, it’s a perfect example of what I am talking about.

Forget the Presidential race for a second and look at the absolute disarray they are experiencing within their Senate and House committee’s – the breakdown between the neo-con’s and the true Goldwater conservatives has been downright ugly & it’s reflected by the public perception of their brand:

Things are so bad that many people don’t even want to call themselves Republicans. The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press has found the lowest percentage of self-described Republicans in 16 years of polling.

The anti-Republican mood is fairly big, and it has been overwhelming,” said Michigan Republican Party Chairman Saul Anuzis.

This anti Republican sentiment will ultimately lead to Democrats gaining anywhere from 3-5 Senate seats, along with a sizable (8-12) gain within the U.S. House of Representatives. And that type of breakdown (which to a certain extent plagued the Democrats in the early 90′s when the GOP took over in record numbers) is absolutely paralyzing to a political brand – not to mention its an injury that doesn’t heal overnight.

Technorati Tags: "DLC vs. the Netroots", "DLC vs. the Netroots" Debate, breaking democratic news, breaking election news, Breaking news, Breaking political news, DailyKos, David Gregory, dlc, Harold Ford, markos moulitsas, meet the press, meet the press 8/12/07, Meet the Press debate, netroots, netroots nation

A brand new Quinnipiac Poll (literally. It was released a couple minutes ago) shows Barack Obama holding a 50% – 41% lead over his Republican counterpart John McCain. This according to a nationwide poll of likely voters which was comprised over a three day span, July 10th through 13th. The internals of this poll however are almost, if not altogether, more intriguing then the actual surface number, which has Obama up by 9 points.

• Independent voters split 44% – 44%, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. Sen. McCain has a slight 47% – 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49% – 42% lead among white voters.
  

• Black voters back Sen. Obama 94% – 1%, while women support him 55% – 36%. Obama leads 63% – 31% among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48% – 44% among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45% for McCain and 44% for Obama.

• The Democrat gets 44% to the Republican’s 47% in red states, which went Republican by more than 5% in 2004, and leads 50% – 39% in purple or swing states.

• By a 55% – 29% margin, likely voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 50% – 31% favorability.

• A total of 88% of American voters say they are “entirely comfortable” or “somewhat comfortable” having a black President, but 9% are “somewhat uncomfortable” or “entirely uncomfortable.” And 86% say Obama’s race won’t affect their vote.

• The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 53% of American voters say, followed by 16% who list the war in Iraq and 11% who list health care.

• Obama leads McCain 53% – 39% among those who list the economy, 65% – 27% among those who cite the war and 67% – 27% among those worried about health care.

So let’s quickly run down the scorecard here. In terms of the economy, the single most important issue on voters minds, Barack Obama wins handily. The same can be said in terms of Obama leading by a wide margin amongst voters who see the current war or the health care crisis as the numero uno issue at the forefront of this Presidential election.

It was also staggering, and in all reality needs to be taken with a grain of salt given the circumstances (being asked in person, opposed to the privacy of the voting booth), but 88% of respondents at least claim they don’t have a problem with a “black president”. If that number holds to be true, which I really doubt to be sincere in the first place, it would be quite telling about how far we have come since even the 1960′s as country in terms of race relations, and overall perception of each other in a racial context.

Then there is a total of 64% of voters say they are “entirely comfortable” or “somewhat comfortable” with a President who is 72 years old, while 34% are “somewhat uncomfortable” or “entirely uncomfortable.” Because of his age, 20% say they are less likely to vote for McCain, while 75% say it won’t make a difference.

Even with all of this I am a firm believer in the “Mike Murphy school of political theory”, which has the Republican strategist arguing that all these national wide polls (not so much on a state by state basis) isn’t worth the paper they’re printed on and won’t until after the candidates respective conventions in August as well as the first wave of national debates.

Technorati Tags: 08 Presidential Election, 2008 presidential election, America comfortable with Black President, barack obama, breaking campaign news, breaking election news, Breaking news, Breaking political news, john mccain, latest Polls, McCain 72 years old, new polls, New Quinnipiac Poll, Obama leading McCain, Presidential Polls, Quinnipiac Poll

There has been a lot of talk regarding the electoral map “swing states” as of late. A particular focus has been put on Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania and Missouri all states where the current polls are close, but reflect similar numbers at this time back in 2000 and 2004. That is why electoral experts have begun to believe that Colorado will ultimately decide the 2008 election – and this is not an assertion that should be taken lightly either. Those arguing that Colorado is very likely in deciding the ’08 election have quite a compelling argument on their side – one that makes more and more sense as each day passes, and state polls are released.

The current electoral college outlook actually favors Barack Obama. He is ahead in states that Democrats over the past decade couldn’t have won if they had Jesus himself as a running mate. I am talking about states like Virginia (Obama +5 points), Arkansas (Obama +4), Arizona (Obama is +3 over McCain, in McCain’s home state), North Carolina (Obama +9), South Carolina (Obama +1) and Georgia (a virtual tie).

However we are going to disregard all that for argumentative purposes. Instead we will lay it out in really simple terms – a scenario which will more or less illustrate why Colorado is so likely to have a major hand, if not the deciding factor, in the upcoming 2008 Presidential election:

“If Democrats hold all the states they won four years ago and flip just Colorado, Obama will be the next president.”

It doesn’t get any clearer then that. If in November John McCain wins all the states George W. Bush did in ’04 with the exception of Colorado, Barack Obama would manage to hit the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed to declare victory.

With that out there to chew on, let’s now look at an array of different polls that have come out of Colorado within the last couple of weeks:

• Public Policy Polling (PPP) – COLORADO (7/9-10/2008, 1,050 Likely Voters)

(D) Barack Obama: 47%
(R) John McCain: 43%

• Zogby – COLORADO (6/11-30/2008, 780 Likely Voters)

(D) Barack Obama: 40%
(R) John McCain: 38%
(L) Bob Barr: 8%

• Quinnipiac/Wall Street Journal – COLORADO (6/17-24/2008, 1,351 Likely Voters)

(D) Barack Obama: 49%
(R) John McCain: 44%

If you go back a little further you would see that Obama actually held a larger lead, however McCain managed to trim it down by a couple points – but has seemingly plateaued at around 3-6 points behind Obama. Another huge factor favoring the Democrats is that their National Convention, where Obama will accept the nomination is set to take place in Denver next month:

“Now, with polls showing Sen. Barack Obama several points ahead of Sen. John McCain in the new swing state, the choice is looking very smart. The local coverage of Obama will be wall-to-wall in the last week of August and could help Democrats pull off a crucial win.”

Clearly one would have to agree, simply by looking at the numbers, and the scenario in play, that Colorado appears to be (this does not mean guaranteed) Barack Obama territory, at least up until this point in the contest.

Another interesting statistic, one which should be taken with a grain of salt for a plethora of reasons, is Colorado’s Presidential primary results.

On the Democrat side, Barack Obama won the Colorado primary with 67% (79,344 votes) of the total vote, while Hillary Clinton garnished 32% (38,587 total votes), putting her in a distant second place. Over on the GOP primary race you will notice that not only did McCain finish a distant second receiving only 19% of the conservative vote (10,621 votes) behind the winner Mitt Romney, who ended up walking away with 59% (33,288 votes), but when you add up all three candidates total vote count (yes Huckabee was still around & finished third) you will see that it works out to approximately 51,000 votes – Combined.

Barack Obama alone received close to 30,000 more votes then the entire Republican field put together. And when you include Hillary Clinton’s total votes you see that the Democratic candidates (the two of them) received nearly 70,000 more votes then the GOP cast of characters did.

Again this is nothing to base an argument around, or even anything that should be taken for more then an “interesting” fact. However it does say something about the states idealology, and what group is more active, energized, and mobile – that clearly being the Democrats.

One more thing we should point out before this we wrap this thing up, and that is Colorado’s important issues, in the eyes of their voters that is.

The biggest issue on the minds of Colorado voters has got to be immigrations. I say this because 5.4% of the states total population is comprised of illegal immigrants. On this issue one would be led to believe that Obama would have the upper hand, seeing as though McCain has so dramatically flip flopped on this issue, it would be hard to see how anyone, left or right of the political spectrum, could believe a word he says when talking about borders, work permits, and anything else to do with immigration in this country.

Anyways, thats about it. I think it’s obvious that Colorado will be crucial in deciding the 2008 Presidential election, and I suspect that it will be a necessity for whichever candidate ends up winning. As to how crucial it will be is still up in the air, but you have to think that with the convention in Denver, and the current poll numbers showing Obama in the lead, and holding it pretty steadily, Democrats have got to be confident in turning the historically “red” state, a nice shade of “blue” this coming November.

Technorati Tags: 08 election, 1960 JFK acceptance speech, 2000 electoral college, 2004 electoral college, 2008 dem convention, 2008 Democratic National Convention, 2008 DNC in Denver, 2008 Election, 2008 presidential election, 2008 presidential race, 270 electoral votes, 75000 to see obama accept nomination, barack leading in polls, barack obama, breaking convention news, breaking DNC news, Breaking news, Breaking political news, Colorado, Colorado could decide Presidential election, colorado most important state, Colorado presidential polls, colorado primary, Colorado primary results, colorado swing state, colorado will decide next president, Congratulations John McCain, convention news, Democratic convention August 25-28, Democratic convention Denver, democratic convention in denver, Democratic National Convention, Denver, DNC convention in denver, DNCC, electoral map, Florida Polls, general election, george w. bush, howard dean, Hyatt Regency Denver, Invesco Field, JFK, JFK acceptance speech at the LA Coliseum, JFK Official Acceptance speech, John F. Kennedy, john mccain, Michigan polls, Missouri polls, Obama accept nomination at invesco field, Obama to accept nomination at invesco field, ohio, Pennsylvania Polls, Pepsi Center, presidential head to head matchups, recent colorado presidential polls, Swing states, The Rocky Mountain News, ‘08 Democratic convention

Jodi Lipper and Cerina Vincent, authors of How to Eat Like a Hot Chick, have put together a list of the top five groups of people that have in essence been “hurt” so to say, by the reality television boom we have seen take place over the last couple of years.

They note that through the systematic “dumbing down” of society, reality TV has hurt many individuals in many different ways. However they are also transparent in their analysis, pointing out that they too watch “trashy reality shows” on a regular basis.

Anyways, here is the list of people whose lives will be forever changed (for the worse) by reality TV:

#1 – Little Girls

Thanks to “The Bachelorette,” little girls grow up seeing that if they can’t find a husband on their own, they can just go on TV and make out with 25 different hot guys to magically find their Prince Charmings. Teenage girls, on the other hand, watch those nasty brats on “My Super Sweet Sixteen” and then turn into them by throwing hissy fits when all they get on their big day is ice cream cake and a key to the family Honda. What about “Keeping Up With the Kardashians”? In order to “keep up” with them, little girls are taught that all it takes to be a celebrity is to become a glorified porn star. Then there are the dozens of “makeover” shows that hire plastic surgeons to make “regular” girls look like they’re favorite celebrities. We’re certainly not saying that all reality shows are bad, but these examples are teaching our little girls the absolute wrong things about themselves – that they should strive to be uneducated, slutty brats with fake boobs. We urge you to steer your daughters’ eyes away from the screen during these shows or to at least take the opportunity to explain why those women are pretty much the worst role models one could pick.

#2 – Little Boys

We think that little boys should be out riding their bikes, finding treasures in the gutter, and daydreaming about they’re cute little crush at school. They should not be glued to the TV watching Flavor Flav hook up with the most classless, scantily clad, cat-fighting women we’ve ever seen. And we don’t want them to be obsessed with watching Tila Tequila to see if she’s ultimately going to choose a guy or a girl to be her partner, either. Boys have plenty of time to learn about bisexuality; they do not need some MySpace whore in a sting bikini and stripper heels encouraging them to think about girls on girls. They’ll waste enough time thinking about that when they’re good and ready.

#3 – Husbands

Our friend’s ex-husband never missed an episode of “Laguna Beach.” He was completely obsessed with those sixteen-year-old rich kids with blonde highlights. It turns out he was also living a double life. When he wasn’t talking about Lauren Conrad and her nemesis, he was banging some other chick the whole time our friend was planning their wedding. Complete and total coincidence? Could be. But we think that reality shows are kind of like strip clubs – if your man visits one occasionally (like for a bachelor party) that’s totally fine and harmless, but these shows (and clubs) can also suck your man in by showing him an alternate lifestyle where there are no rules, no repercussions, and all the fake boobs and equally fake tans he can feast his eyes on. We’d prefer to keep our man with us in the real world, instead.

#4 – Wives

The women on reality shows can make even the most confident women out there feel like they are not beautiful enough, skinny enough, or tan enough, and especially like they don’t have enough shiny things. Does watching reruns of the Real World make you feel good about where you are in life? And does hearing Denise Richards explain that she needs a $9,000 grill because she likes things that are “a little bit fancier” make you feel better or worse about your lifestyle? We don’t think that anyone should try to emulate the people on reality shows, and it’s very sad that watching too many of them can actually impact one’s self esteem. Women who are addicted to these shows and take them too seriously should try watching the news about the rest of the world – it’s sure to make them feel better about the $35 grill in their own backyard.

#5 – Reality Stars

Yes, it may seem counterintuitive to say that reality shows are bad for the very stars that are taking the jobs away from real actors (and writers and directors) and are becoming rich and famous from these shows, but think about where some recent reality stars have landed. “Newlyweds” surely contributed to Jessica and Nick’s breakup, and we wonder if “Hogan Knows Best” had anything to do with little Nick’s horrible car crash and subsequent prison time. No, there may not be a direct correlation between reality show and prison, but these shows do inflate their stars’ egos and make them believe that they are omnipotent, immortal creatures. Dealing with celebrity is hard enough for people who have actually earned it with their own hard work and talent. It must be even more difficult to handle when it comes overnight and for no good reason at all.

Technorati Tags: America's Next Top Model, American Idol, dancing with the stars, Flavor Of Love, Hogan Knows Best, Keeping Up With The Kardashians, Laguna Beach, Living Lohan, Living News, My Super Sweet Sixteen, Reality Show, Reality TV, The Bachelorette, The Balanced Life, The HIlls

The 2008 Election is seeing something that no other Presidential race thus far has been privy too – a massive influx of the “youth vote” and the tool they are using to get involved. The internet. It has been well documented that throughout the Democratic the “Millennials” turned out to vote in numbers up until now, no one could have imagined, and the key to a lot of this “involvement” has been the internet – which has transformed from just a way to instant message your friends or check an e-mail, to a vital networking and grassroots mobilization platform.

There are those who argue against the importance of the internet in regards to it’s impact on politics (Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager Mark Penn one said Obama supporters “look like facebook”), however Barack Obama saw something worthwhile and brought in one of the industries best to get his “online campaign” in place – and boy did it pay off:

“Mr. Hughes, 24, was one of four founders of Facebook. In early 2007, he left the company to work in Chicago on Senator Obama’s new-media campaign. Leaving behind his company at such a critical time would appear to require some cognitive dissonance: political campaigns, after all, are built on handshakes and persuasion, not computer servers, and Mr. Hughes has watched, sometimes ruefully, as Facebook has marketed new products that he helped develop.”

Initially some of those closest to Obama were a little skeptical about throwing so much behind a “social media” campaign via the internet, however those individuals were quickly convinced that not only was this the right move, but they may just have hit a political gold mine – that up until now had been completely untapped:

“The campaign’s new-media strategy, inspired by popular social networks like MySpace and Facebook, has revolutionized the use of the Web as a political tool, helping the candidate raise more than two million donations of less than $200 each and swiftly mobilize hundreds of thousands of supporters before various primaries.

The centerpiece of it all is My.BarackObama.com, where supporters can join local groups, create events, sign up for updates and set up personal fund-raising pages. If we did not have online organizing tools, it would be much harder to be where we are now,” Mr. Hughes said.

One of my fundamental beliefs from my days as a community organizer is that real change comes from the bottom up,” Mr. Obama said in a statement. And there’s no more powerful tool for grass-roots organizing than the Internet.”

Now Mr. Hughes and other campaign aides are applying the same social networking tools to try to win the general election. This time, however, they must reach beyond their base of young, Internet-savvy supporters.”

One may be asking themselves what is left? What could Obama possibly do, that he already hasn’t, to garnish even more support then he already has received courtesy of the internet? Well there are actually quite a few plans the Obama camp plans on employing – and remember this is unchartered territory so there is no blueprint per se for a candidate on how to run a successful online campaign:

“By early April, Mr. Obama’s new-media team was already planning for the election by expanding its online phone-calling technology. In mid-May, to keep volunteers busy as the primaries played out, the campaign started a nationwide voter registration drive. And in late June, after Senator Clinton bowed out of the race, the millions of people on the Obama campaign’s e-mail lists were asked to rally her supporters as well as undecided voters by hosting Unite for Change” house parties across the country. Nearly 4,000 parties were held.”

The campaign’s successful new-media strategy is already being studied as a playbook for other candidates, including the presumptive Republican nominee, Senator John McCain.

Their use of social networks will guide the way for future campaigns,” Peter Daou, Mrs. Clinton’s Internet director, said at a recent political technology conference. Mr. Daou called Mr. Obama’s online outreach amazing.”

Sitting amid a cluster of cubicles, Mr. Hughes, whose title is online organizing guru,” handles the My.BarackObama.com site, which is known within the campaign as MyBo. Other staff members maintain Mr. Obama’s presence on Facebook (where he has one million supporters), purchase online advertising, respond to text messages from curious voters, produce videos and e-mail millions of supporters.”

So as you can see there is plenty left to do and even when that is complete, there will be room for honing and perfecting the practices, I say this because as I referenced earlier, this is the first time anything like this, on this large of a playing field, has been utilized.

The key to Obama’s “social networking” online success is actually rather simple in it’s philosophy:

“As supporters started to join MyBo in early 2007, Mr. Hughes brought a growth strategy, borrowed from Facebook’s founding principles: keep it real, and keep it local. Mr. Hughes wanted Mr. Obama’s social network to mirror the off-line world the same way that Facebook seeks to, because supporters would foster more meaningful connections by attending neighborhood meetings and calling on people who were part of their daily lives. The Internet served as the connective tissue.”

But even with all this, and remarkable it most definitely is, we will have to wait until November to see if it has any dramatic event. One would not be wrong in assuming that it will, seeing as though the use of the internet in energizing and mobilizing the “youth vote” is credited in helping Obama defeat Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

But make no mistake about it – the internet is a new player on the big stage of politics, and what we are seeing now with Obama and his utilization of the net is just the beginning of a new phenomena we will see from here on out when dealing with elections, politics, and social movements.

Technorati Tags: 18-26, american youth vote, barack obama, Bestseller, Breaking news, campaign, college graduation, computer skills, democrat primaries, Democratic Primary, ELECTION, employment, entry level jobs, finding the right job, Future of politics, Generation Y, Harvard youth poll, Literture, Michael D. Hais, Millennial, Millennial Generation, MILLENNIALS, Morley Winograd, New Books, new generation, political landscape, POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, politics, technology in the workplace, VOTERS, workforce, Youth for Obama, Youth Vote, “Millennial Makeover”

Throughout the Democratic primary there was one demographic who really didn’t waver in their support of Sen. Barack Obama regardless of what their region, race, or religion was – I am of course talking about the always coveted, but equally equally as absent ‘youth vote.’ Politicians have been trying forever to really mobilize the youth, throughout the years candidates have attempted everything imaginable too mobilize the youth vote on their behalf, however none have really been successful in doing so. Well, that is until now.

Their were indicators from the get go that the youth vote was going to impact the Democratic primary in a way it previously never had. In Iowa, Barack Obama trailed Hillary Clinton by 10 points in nearly every poll released all the way up until the night before voters headed to the polls. But for some reason Obama’s campaign manager, David Ploufe, was seemingly at ease, and when peppered with questions handled it like a man who knew something the rest of us didn’t:

“David Plouffe, had just told reporters that youngsters were “Barack’s core support in effect, his hidden vote.”

Well, it turns out the Ploufe indeed knew something; the youth was energized, active, and actually planned on showing up. Senator Obama ended up winning the Iowa Primary with 38% of the vote, John Edwards came in second with 30%, and Hillary finished a surprising third with 29%. This victory was in many ways made possible by the unprecedented, and near unanimous youth vote – a trend that kept true throughout the entire primary process, and from the looks of it, heading full speed at the general election in November.

“as the icy streets of downtown Des Moines filled with young Obamaniacs hugging and cheering, “We did it!” Upstairs, scruffy postcollegiate staffers squeezed between couches and credenzas to celebrate the senator’s surprise victory. Cans of Bud Light covered every surface. Youth turnout was up 135 percent from 2004, and the under-25 set alone gave Obama 17,000 votes, a 26-year-old speechwriter told me. Obama’s margin of victory? Twenty thousand. “We did it” was right.”

So who are these new breed of politically savvy, laptop toting, iPod wearing hipsters? Well, they have been dubbed the “Millennials”, and when it comes to their politics they know what they like, they are active in pursuing those interests through hard work fund raising, organizing and, yes – showing up to the polls on election day. And they like Obama, and when I say “like”, I really mean, “love” Obama:

“Born in the 1980s, Sand and the supporters chugging Bud that night are what generational theorists call “millennials.” (Full disclosure: I’m one, too. Further disclosure: I’m also a registered independent.) Now, a month after Iowa, my boss’s boss is well aware that millions of my peers have fallen under the spell of the freshman senator from Illinois. At this point, the statistics seem almost stale: with youth turnout doubling, tripling and even quadrupling in the 30 contests to date, Obama won the 18-to-29 demographic by 4-1 in Iowa, 3-1 in New Hampshire, 3-1 in South Carolina and 2-1 in Nevada, and he trounced Clinton, often by as much as 50 percent among young voters, in 10 of the 13 Super Tuesday states with available data.”

Before I continue, just as the other did above, I to want to offer full disclosure, seeing as though for better or worse I too am a “Millennial”, as well as an Obama supporter. With that out of the way let’s continue with our analysis of the ‘youth vote’ and what makes these proactive, politically competent group tick.

The second part of the equation involves more of a generational gap, opposed to political motivation. In their eye’s “Millennial’s” saw Clinton as a prototypical “baby boomer”, who was an amazing person, strong politician, and more the likable – it’s just that “baby boomer’s” think and act differently then “Millennials”. When they would hear her hammer Barack Obama on experience, instead of taking it the way she intended it to come across, they thought to themselves; “great, more from the same group that gave us eight years of Reagan, four years of Bush Sr., and eight painful years of his doltish son. If that’s ‘experience’ then you can have it all, we don’t want it.”

Now you can agree with this train of though, or not – but regardless of how you personally view this, it’s the reality of the world we are living in, well at least in terms of elections, campaigns and politics in general. This is another major factor in the generational divide. “Millennial’s” are sick and tired of the partisan bickering, and political mudslinging that has all but taken over our elected offices. They see that this gets nothing done, and furthermore, hurts everyone involved, not just this group, or that political party, but the vast majority of American’s in general:

“According to Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais, authors of “Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics,” millennials “aren’t confrontational or combative, the way Boomers (whose generational mantra was ‘Don’t trust anyone over 30′) have been.” Instead, millennials belong to what social scientist William Strauss calls a “civic generation,” drawn to issues of “community, politics and deeds, whereas the boomers focused on issues of self, culture and morals.” Reacting against the excesses of our parents especially their efforts to advance moral causes through partisan politics we prefer to address problems by reforming institutions from within.”

So where does that leave us, and specifically Barack Obama in terms of the upcoming general election in November – an election that is being universally recognized as the most important Presidential decision this country will make in a very, very long time.

If one was to look at even the most generalized findings in terms of what issues and rational are important to the “Millennial” voter (who have already proved that they show up on election day) it would be fairly easy to assume Barack Obama will receive not only the same support from the ‘youth vote’, but in fact a larger swell – seeing as though there were in fact a good number of 18-29 year olds who supported Hillary during the primary will most likely flip the switch for Obama in November:

“A majority of Millennials (57%) think that gay marriage should be legal; 58% think more needs to be done to help the environment, even if our economy would suffer to some degree; and a majority also think we need a universal health care system and more money spent on education, even if it would mean increasing taxes. With progressive views like that, it is no wonder Millennials have overwhelmingly supported the Democrats throughout their brief voting history.”

“What else makes Obama so appealing to young voters? Well, unlike our current president, Obama doesn’t cringe at the idea of diplomacy. In fact, he encourages it and has even said that he thinks we should engage in diplomacy with unfriendly nations such as Iran and Syria. His emphasis on peace and multilateralism is something that Millennials believe is a necessity for our national security. According to a November, 2004 Democracy Corps poll, 57% of 18-29 year olds believed that America’s security depends upon building strong ties with other nations, and even more interesting, according to an April 2005 GQR poll, 55% of 18-25 year olds said that the 9/11 attacks meant that America needs to be more connected with the world. Also, in a 2004 Pew survey, only 29% of 18-25 year olds agreed that using overwhelming force is the best way to defeat terrorism,” compared to 67% who thought relying too much on military force leads to hatred and more terrorism.”

Basically this is a clear signal that the days of George W. Bush’s “cowboy”, “my way or the highway” diplomacy (which McCain has clearly adopted as a general platform stance) are numbered. That time has passed, America tried it their way, and it failed – The deceitful, and undermining tact behind the neo-conservative policies of the Bush administration have subsequently sent our country down a path no American (well at least 80 plus percent of American’s) likes, and the Millennial Generation happens to be the group taking for a large part, the brunt end of the nightmarish Bush tenure. That is why they are the most outspoken against the GOP, the smear tactics they use, and the overall vibe they need to set in order to win elections.

Combine the anti neo-con sentiment described above, with the fact that in Iowa, youth were 22% of the electorate, outperforming their share of eligible voters and comprising a higher portion of the electorate than the so-called reliable seniors, and in New Hampshire, youth were 18% of the electorate – the second highest share for youth during the primary process, and 43% of all young voters turned out, far and away the highest level of actual turnout among 18 – 29 year olds – one would have to recognize the looming problem this political first of sorts poses the McCain Campaign.

However this tidal wave may be silent up until the moment of impact, mainly because I think – scratch that, I know, that the media and mainstream polling agencies won’t give the youth electorate any significant consideration. Which is really quite significant when you take into account that Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, Gallup, Pew, and NBC/WSJ obtain the majority of their weekly, bi-weekly, or daily polling data via the telephone. And seeing as though I can honestly say that I don’t know one person my age who has a land line phone, I am forced to believe that this sizable voting demographic will continue (much as it was throughout the primary process) to get passed over in the overall analysis, and actual numbers pertaining to the general election.

So,taking all of this information into account, I am willing to make a prediction. A prediction that the “Millennial” voters will have a surprising, and quite frankly, “never seen before”, sized impact on the upcoming presidential election, with – and again this is simply a prediction, not a guarantee – the majority of their support coming in the form of votes for the Democratic candidate, Senator Barack Obama.

Just watch, you’ll see.

Technorati Tags: 18-26, american youth vote, barack obama, Bestseller, Breaking news, campaign, college graduation, computer skills, democrat primaries, Democratic Primary, ELECTION, employment, entry level jobs, finding the right job, Future of politics, Generation Y, Harvard youth poll, Literture, Michael D. Hais, Millennial, Millennial Generation, MILLENNIALS, Morley Winograd, New Books, new generation, political landscape, POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, politics, technology in the workplace, VOTERS, workforce, Youth for Obama, Youth Vote, “Millennial Makeover”